Property Sales Jump Despite Inflation, Rising Interest Rates - Invest For Property

UK property sales saw a slight upward trend in volume during November despite the housing market still showing signs of a slowing down in the face of soaring inflation and rising interest rates. Read more on this article by Henry Thomas to keep yourself updated with what the latest data gathered from HMRC predicts.

According to the latest data from HMRC on Wednesday, there was a 4% month-on-month increase in transactions during the period, and an increase on figures from November 2021

UK property sales saw an uptick in volume during November despite the housing market still showing hallmarks of a slowdown in the face of soaring inflation and rising interest rates.

According to the latest data from HMRC on Wednesday, there was a 4% month-on-month increase in transactions during the period, and an increase on figures from November 2021.

An estimated 107,190 house sales took place in November, which was 13% higher than November the previous year.

HMRC warned that year-on-year comparisons should be treated with caution after the stamp duty holiday, which ended in autumn 2021, caused house sales to bunch up earlier in that year.

The report said house sales ‘have been stable in recent months, and remain similar but slightly elevated above pre-coronavirus levels’.

The 4% month-on-month increase in property sales volumes in November does not mean that the housing market got a second wind following the mortgage market chaos in the fallout of the ill-fated mini-budget in late September, Myron Jobson, senior personal finance analyst at Interactive Investor, said.

It takes months before sales are completed and as such, many transactions would have started before the infamous fiscal event, he said.

He added: However, the housing market is still exhibiting the hallmarks of a slowdown as inflation concerns, rising mortgage rates and an impending recession weigh on the property market.

Mortgage lenders have reported a fall in new buyer enquiries in recent months, while recent Bank of England data shows the number of mortgage approvals for house purchases has waned, he said.

After a period of stratospheric growth, the burning question now is how low will house prices fall?, he said.

Nationwide has predicted that UK house prices are set to fall by 5% next year as activity is expected to stabilise to just below pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasted a 9% fall in the next two years.

Sam North, analyst at social investing network eToro, said: The end of the stamp duty holiday in September last year meant transactions were forced forward and there was a subsequent lull towards the end of the year.

November 2022 showed a marginal increase in October figures, but realistically, this is perhaps being driven by a desire to finalise moves before the end of the year, and a slight improvement in sentiment now that mortgage rates have rolled back a little, North said.

He said: The real test will likely come into the start of 2023, as the cold weather starts to bite and interest rates continue going up, as is widely expected. For buyers and sellers alike, incomes will be squeezed, and this may well start to impact property costs and transactions alike.

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